Predicting Future Exchange Rates

Nobody can reliably predict future exchange rates or else they would be incredibly rich because you could earn billions of dollars by being able to predict even miniscule movements in exchange rates.  There are many professional exchange rate traders who do try to predict them, and perhaps some can eke out profits, but they can only do so at significant cost in researching real events that could drive future exchange rate prices and beating everyone else to identify those events.  Many professional traders lose vast fortunes on the exchange rate market and about 3/4 of small traders lose their shirts according to the Wall Street Journal (pay-wall). 
But that doesn't mean that foreign exchange futures are useless to small businesses. The very fact that small businesses cannot predict future exchange rates is what makes the futures market useful for them.  That is because business can sometimes predict their future needs for foreign exchange accurately and they can reduce their own future risk by buying the currency futures now.  For example, if you are sure you will need to buy $20k of French cheese next summer, why not lock in your exchange rate now so that you can predict your future costs better?  Othewise, the price of French cheese will fluctuate with the exchange rate.  By fixing your exchange rate, you have one less variable to worry about and can focus on the business of how to profit from all that cheese.  Hopefully that is what your competive advantage is, not foreign exchange speculation.  Indeed, if you don't buy foreign exchange futures, and you know that you will need to order French cheese in the future, then you have unconsciously decided to become a foreign exchange speculator.  If the Euro drops, you will make more money, but if it rises, you could still lose your shirt on the cheese.