1) What you’re saying when you say you want to put an end to global currency manipulation is that you want a weaker dollar. That’s what currency manipulation is: An effort by other countries to artificially strengthen the dollar in order to make their currency — and thus their exports — comparatively cheaper. But if we want to weaken our dollar, we could just, you know, weaken the dollar.The 'weak' renminbi was a significant drag on the United States for at least a decade, but in 2007 when Chinese currency manipulation was a serious drag on the US economy, globalization was relatively popular and The World Is Flat was a NYT bestseller. Krugman adds:
2) China is not the world’s worst currency manipulator, or even particularly close to it. Singapore is worse than China. Taiwan is worse than China. These days, Switzerland and Japan are arguably worse than China. ...Here’s a list...
3) China is getting much better. They’ve allowed their currency to rise substantially in recent years. ...China’s ”current account peaked at 10.7 percent of GDP in 2007. This year, it looks like it’ll only be 2 percent.” It seems a bit weird to intensify the pressure on China, and to try and publicly humiliate them, at the exact moment when they’re doing what we’ve been asking them to do. As economist Nicholas Lardy told NPR, ”there was a very good case for the [U.S.] to take action against China five years ago, but not now.”
4) Calling someone a “currency manipulator” doesn’t trigger some magical process that leads to them no longer manipulating their currency. On its own, its nothing but an international insult. But if you follow through, then it’s a first step towards slapping tariffs on Chinese goods. But then China can begin slapping retaliatory tariffs on our goods....
Since [2007], two big things have happened: relatively high inflation in China, and some appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar. As a result, the real exchange rate of China against the United States (based on consumer prices), has appreciated significantly:As China's exchange rate has risen, its current account (trade) surplus has dropped, and it has been sending less savings abroad.
At the same time. China’s surplus has come way down:![]()
So this is an odd time to be making confrontation over China’s currency a centerpiece of your economic policy — unless, of course, it’s just bluster aimed at making voters think you’re tough.![]()
Note that Krugman mislabeled his first graph the "China/US real exchange rate." It is a graph of the value of the Chinese currency, so it should be labeled the "Chinese real exchange rate vs. US$". The "China/US" rate would be the value of the US dollar because that is in the denominator, but Krugman isn't thinking of it as a fraction, but as something like a hyphenated word.
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