Has the Industrialized World Reached Peak Travel? | Smart Journalism. Real Solutions. Miller-McCune.

Whether or not we are at peak oil, the thing that will increase gas prices is if economic growth is faster than the growth of oil production. Unless we find a backstop technology or just get a whole lot more energy efficient. Some of that is happening:

Has the Industrialized World Reached Peak Travel?

Passenger travel, which grew rapidly in the 20th century, appears to have peaked in much of the developed world.

A study of eight industrialized countries, including the United States, shows that seemingly inexorable trends — ever more people, more cars and more driving — came to a halt in the early years of the 21st century, well before the recent escalation in fuel prices. It could be a sign, researchers said, that the demand for travel and the demand for car ownership in those countries has reached a saturation point.

“With talk of ‘peak oil,’ why not the possibility of ‘peak travel’ when a clear plateau has been reached?” United States, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia... motorized passenger travel grew rapidly in all eight countries as greater prosperity led to rising car ownership and domestic air travel. But after 2000, when per capita GDP in the U.S. hit $37,000, passenger travel stopped growing here.... People already spend an average 1.1 hours per day traveling from one place to another, and driving speeds can’t get much faster.

Unfortunately, air travel is extremely vulnerable to high oil prices. There are few substitutes.

"The place where airline use will actually decline is in North America where we have turned flying into 'buses with wings' mass transportation," says Anthony Perl, ...Perl believes air travel in the future will be reserved for the rich