according to assentially all sources, Australia has always run a large balance of payments deficit except for one flukey year in the early '70s. At various times different politicians and investors have proclaimed this unsustainable, but it's always been sustained. And it keeps on being sustained even though Australia is currently undergoing a boom of primary commodities exports to China. What's more, despite this never ending trade deficit Australia decided about 20 years ago to stop having recessions which is pretty enviable.Foreigners are willing to lend Australia money (invest in Australia) because it can credibly pay the money back partly due to the growing economy which is growing partly due to its growing population. One of the only other rich countries that has a stable economy and a growing population is the US and we also have had a current account deficit for decades.
So what's going on?Two things, I think. One is that Australia is a very respectable country with a stable liberal democracy just like the United States or Germany or Japan. But the other is that Australia has a very fast-growing population. It's growing substantially faster than the American population, to say nothing of Japan or the major European countries. And if you're thinking about savings and investment in the broadest and most generic sense, that's exactly where you want to invest. A country where you can say with confidence that 20 years in the future the same political framework will be in place and there will be much more overall demand for land and goods and services due to the growing population. So because Australia is such a fundamentally sound investment opportunity, it gets to run a trade deficit. And it will always get to run a trade deficit until either it decides to sharply curtail immigration and population growth, or until India's political system strikes rich foreigners as more credible and stable.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Neverending Trade Deficits OK?
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